Storms Forecast

Biggest challenge for tropical meteorologist:
Convince residents to brace for a storm,
even if it is not coming right at them.
Hurricanes don’t always go where they’re forecast.

Be aware of all of a storm’s dangers:

Strong winds, flooding,
tornados, storm surge.
Storms have a cone of uncertainty.

The warning process starts about seven days out.

From there it ramps up with increased advisories.
When a storm is two to three days away,
forecast accuracy still can be off target.

Forecasters must warn people without scaring them.

"If we always relay the worst case scenario,
we’re crying wolf;
people with tune us out."

 Which is worse—hurricanes or earthquakes?  At least with hurricanes, we have a warning. Six weeks after I moved to Orlando in 1995, Hurricane Erin hit.  I had no idea about what to do.  Fortunately, it was only a category 1. 

© 2012 Catherine Giordano